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Tue, 19 May 2020

Equities

Moderna vaccine: what do we know so far?

Moderna shares jumped another 20% and the S&P 500 rallied over 3% after the US drug maker reported positive results from its early stage trials of its potential Covid-19 vaccine. The news sent risk assets higher as a vaccine would help economies get back to a true normal far quicker than any other measure. But has Moderna really got the goods?

Tue, 19 May 2020

Morning Note

European shares cautious after Wall Street soars

Risk on resumes? Wall Street enjoyed one of its best days this year as hopes grew for a Covid-19 vaccine The Dow rallied 900 points, up almost 4%, while the S&P 500 rose 90 points, or 3.15%, to 2953, closing at its highest since March 6th. The close was just a little shy of the 2954 peak on Apr 29th, the most recent swing high.

Mon, 18 May 2020

Equities

Are high-yield corporate bond spreads suggesting continued caution for equity investors?

Over the last 8 weeks, the NASDAQ has rallied as much as 40%, from its lows on 23 March to a swing high at the beginning of last week. However, an analysis of the performance of high-yield corporate debt during the current equity market rally, as compared to how high-yield debt has performed in past bear markets, may indicate to traders that continued caution is warranted.

Mon, 18 May 2020

Morning Note

Gold breaks out, European equities rally

Equities and oil are higher as investors cautiously welcome signs lockdowns are ending but markets remain in this tug-of-war pattern where we simply don’t know whether the damage will be a lot worse than feared or the recovery will be much swifter. Indices remain in broad ranges are still seeking direction.

Sun, 17 May 2020

Week Ahead

Week Ahead: Walmart and Home Depot Earnings, UK April Jobless Claims, May PMIs

We may be reaching the tail end of earnings season, but there are still some eagerly awaited releases lined up this week. Highlights will be reports from Walmart and Home Depot; stock in these companies has seen strong bid even as the wider market has tanked.  We also have the FOMC minutes, a host of PMIs, and jobless claims data from the UK for April. Here’s your full breakdown of the coming events you need to know about. 

Fri, 15 May 2020

Commodities
+3
Equities
Forex
Indices

Risk offered into the weekend

A number of factors have conspired to create a more risk-off tone to the end the trading week than we saw at the start of the European session. Although European indices are just about holding the line, US futures are indicated lower and we may see the S&P 500 retest the lows under the 50% retracement level at 2790. The Dow is indicated -200pts.

Fri, 15 May 2020

Commodities

Are gold prices about to stage a second wave rally?

Gold prices have been very well supported due to a broad flight to safety amid the Covid-19 pandemic, whilst a slump in real yields has made the metal less unattractive despite the lack of inflation. Although gold swung lower as risk assets were ditched in February and the first half of March, this was prompted by a scramble for cash at all costs due in part to a dollar liquidity squeeze that has since eased considerably. As risk assets have rallied off the March lows, gold too has made substantial gains and is on the brink of notching fresh multi-year highs. Bitcoin has traded in a similar fashion.

Fri, 15 May 2020

Equities

Is Harley Davidson finally a buy at $20?

Harley Davidson stock has collapsed, trading down about 70% over the last few years. The Covid-19 outbreak has only made matters worse. But at $20 is HOG finally a buy?

Fri, 15 May 2020

Morning Note

Stocks stage fightback, Trump raises China stakes

US stocks staged a mighty comeback and closed at the highs as beaten-up financials managed to recover ground. The S&P 500 traded under the 50% retracement level at 2790, dipping as low as 2766 as US jobless claims rose by another 3m, before rallying to close up 1% at 2852. Financials, which have failed to really take part in the rally since March, led the way as Wells Fargo rose 6.8% and Bank of America and JPMorgan both rallied 4%. Energy stocks also firmed as oil prices rallied.

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