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Thu, 14 May 2020

Equities

Three reasons why the next move in the S&P 500 may be lower

Following a March 23 move to lows around 2180, the S&P 500 recovered to trade at highs near 2973 at the end of April. With the market 160 points lower than this swing high at time of writing, we wanted to outline several reasons why the next leg for the index may be lower.

Thu, 14 May 2020

Morning Note

Equity markets track lower after Wall St falls

Public Health England has approved an antibody test from Roche, which could mean easing lockdown restrictions sooner. A junior health minister described it as a ‘game changer’. We shall see – the record on testing so far has been sketchy but it’s a step in the right direction. Russia has also announced positive trials of a treatment drug favipiravi, which was first developed under the name Avigan in Japan. Despite some good news around these drugs however, it seems markets are waking up to the economic reality at last.

Wed, 13 May 2020

Commodities

Oil prices spike on surprise draw

WTI futures and Brent futures spiked to highs of the day after a surprise draw on US oil stocks. EIA figures showed a 745k barrel drawdown vs an expected build of more than 4m barrels. Stocks at the key Cushing, Oklahoma hub feel by 3m barrels, the first such draw since February.

Wed, 13 May 2020

Commodities

Could natural gas prices follow WTI and go negative?

Natural gas prices could follow oil into negative territory, according to Wang Yusuo, the chairman of ENN Energy Holdings, one of China’s largest distributors. According to a Bloomberg report, he said a lack of storage could send prices negative for a short while.

Wed, 13 May 2020

Morning Note

Negative rates: not now Bernard

Not Now, Bernard is a children’s story about parents who don’t pay attention and don’t notice their son has been gobbled up by a monster, which they duly allow into the house. One could make parallels with central banks and the monstrosity of negative rates. 

Tue, 12 May 2020

Morning Note

Global stocks seek direction, Vodafone dividend maintained

Stock markets are in a bit of a muddle right now. On the one hand there are signs of economies emerging from stasis. New York governor Cuomo says three regions of the state will reopen this weekend. Britain has moved from ‘stay home’ to ‘stay alert’, Europe is reopening: there is light at the end of the tunnel, and markets are always first to move. Massive stimulus from central banks and governments helps, too.

Sun, 10 May 2020

Week Ahead

Week Ahead: UK and Eurozone GDP, NZ Budget, Marriott earnings

Economic data at the moment tends to fall into one of two categories: 1) How bad did things get in Q1, and, 2) How quickly are they likely to get better? Everyone knows the Q2 data is where the real pain lies, but markets want an idea of where things stood before the effects of COVID-19 lockdowns really began to bite. 

Thu, 7 May 2020

Equities

BT scraps dividend until March 2021, IAG sitting on €10bn cash

Another one bites the dust – BT has become the latest casualty in the massacre of FTSE dividends. Management have taken the axe to this year’s final dividend and all next year’s pay outs.

Thu, 7 May 2020

Morning Note

BoE: for illustrative purposes only

The Bank of England left rates at 0.1% and, to the surprise of some, did not increase the size of its asset purchase programme. Sterling bounced back a bit after a week of losses following the decision. GBPUSD tested support at 1.23 overnight but spiked north of 1.2380 on the Bank of England’s announcement.

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