Week Ahead: Is Santa Claus coming to Wall Street?
In a two-week special edition of the usual week ahead, our attention turns to the stock market’s usual end-of-year bounce. Will the traditional Christmas-time rally hit wall street? Or will November’s strength eat into any potential December gains? We also take a look at oil & gas stocks in the run up to the new year.
Is a Santa Rally coming to Wall Street?
It appears the major indices had a bit of a bumper November. The Dow Jones chalked up its best month since 1987; Euro Stoxxx 600 enjoyed its best month since record began; the FTSE 100 rallied 12% for its best month in 31 years; Value Rotation set up the Russell 2000 for its best month on record. All very well and good for November, but does this mean a Wall Street Santa Rally is off the cards?
Valuations are stretched with the S&P 500 Shiller Cape PE ratio at >33x. That’s double the historic 17x average. Additionally, forward PE multiples or >21x for the index are also quite stretched too.
Additionally, the Bank of America Fund Manager Survey last week flashed a sell signal with cash balances falling to 4% of investor portfolios.
Couple this with Goldman Sachs sentiment indicators registering +2.0 standard deviations above average, then the outlook for a Santa Rally isn’t particularly great. A reading this high tends to create headwinds for equity markets in the 1-4 weeks after, which may be bad news for markets this December.
But there are reasons to be jolly. If a Brexit deal is struck, and the US passes a Covid stimulus package, then, combined with strong vaccine take–up investors could take a more bullish view of December’s markets.
As ever, the signals are a bit mixed, so the only thing to do is wait and see. Maybe Santa and his reindeer will make it to Wall Street after all.
With or without a deal, the UK is set to leave the transition period of its exit from the European Union on January 31st. Market participants will closely watch for upcoming data for the impact on the UK economy and a possible policy response from the Bank of England. At the time of writing there was no clear sign of whether the UK and EU would agree to a trade deal, though markets remain broadly hopeful that the two sides can come together.
Oil & natural gas inventories
With a relatively quiet data calendar over the Christmas period the weekly oil and natural gas inventories will be among the most closely watched high frequency economic indicators for traders to watch.
In a world where oil demand has sunk massively, but with a late optimistic upswing over the past couple of weeks, it has been less than stellar for oil producers.
Natural gas hasn’t had as bad a time as oil, but there are indicators the future may not be so rosy. President-elect Biden’s green vision may have a big impact on natural gas demand going forward, as the US looks to renewables to secure its electricity generation future.
OPEC is taking a cautious route if its recent moves are anything to go by. And that’s fair enough, given the year its members have endured. While it has given the go-ahead to raise production volumes by 500,000bpd, it has lowered its oil demand forecast for next year. It has dropped its estimations by 410,000bpd, with new oil demand figures at 95.89m bpd.
This feeds into higher storage numbers in US oil. The EIA reports over 2m barrels were added to its stocks in the week commencing December 11th. People aren’t travelling, so fuel demand is low, pushing stockpiles higher.
Could vaccines give oil a release next year? It’s possible. The US has begun vaccinating frontline workers, and the UK is about two weeks into phase one of its rollout programme at the time of writing. Logically, if more people are up and about, travelling, and back to work, thanks to vaccines, then oil demand should rise too.
Natural gas, though, has another problem oil doesn’t always suffer from: the weather. Temperatures in key markets are some of the warmest on record, which means consumption of gas for heating is lower. If warm temperatures persist through the winter, then prices could fall in line with smaller domestic and business demand.
Webinars to watch
As the year comes to a close, Mark Leigh rounds off 2020’s series of free webinars. He will return in 2021 with more educational insights and trading tips but be sure not to miss any of his webinars in the coming two weeks. Highlights include:
Introduction: How the Business works and Where do you Fit in
Tuesday 22nd December – 4.30pm GMT
This overview is designed to give a sound and clear understanding of how the market works and how money is made and lost as a currency trader. Realistic goals and expectations. How the market works in relation to your trading business. Moving the odds into your favour and control the level of risk.
FXtrademark has a Proprietary Scorecard System for every Trade Setup
Wednesday 23rd December – 4.30pm GMT
Learn to use the FXtrademark scorecard where you will score each trade set-up on a scale from 0 to 10 based on predetermined criterion. This system will allow you to trade with a system and a plan as opposed to making arbitrary decisions based on emotions.
Mark Leigh’s Trader Clinic
Monday 28th December – 4.00pm GMT
See how a professional uses the ups and downs of trading to hone their strategy and improve their returns with our Trader Clinic. Join Mark Leigh as he demonstrates the procedure he uses to evaluate his winning and losing trades and build a better strategy.
Ten Trading Rules for Every Level of Trader
Thursday 29th December – 4.30pm GMT
Trading is not an exact science, the markets are live and often unpredictable, that is why you need a set of rules as a basis for making educated and calculated trading decisions.
Major economic data
|Mon 21 Dec||12.30am||AUD||Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook|
|Tue 22 Dec||9.30am||GBP||Final GDP q/q|
|1.30pm||USD||Final GDP q/q|
|Wed 23 Dec||1.30pm||CAD||GDP m/m|
|1.30pm||USD||Core PCE Price Index m/m|
|1.30pm||USD||Personal Spending m/m|
|Tentative||USD||Treasury Currency Report|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|Thu 24 Dec||1.30pm||USD||Core Durable Good Orders m/m|
|1.30pm||USD||Durable Goods Orders m/m|
|3.30pm||USD||Natural Gas Storage|
|Tue 29 Dec||3.00pm||USD||CB Consumer Confidence|
|Tentative||USD||Treasury Confidence Report|
|Wed 30 Dec||8.00am||CHF||KOF Economic Barometer|
|3.30pm||USD||US Crude Oil Inventories|
|Thu 31 Dec||1.00am||CNH||Manufacturing PMI|
|3.30pm||USD||US Natural Gas Inventories|
Key earnings data
|Mon 21 Dec||HEICO||Q4 2020 Earnings|
|Factset Research Systems||Q1 2021 Earnings|
|Tue 22 Dec||Cintas Corp.||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|CarMax||Q3 2021 Earnings|
|Wed 23 Dec||Paychex||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Vontobel||Q2 2021 Earnings|
|Fri 25 Dec||Nitori Holdings||Q3 2021 Earnings|